Firstly, and most tellingly, no-one that I am acquainted with in Korea is really worried about this. South Koreans are used to this behaviour from their neighbour, sadly. Back in March, the Cheonan was sunk (allegedly) by North Korea, killing 47 sailors. This from a country which has also blown up airliners, murdered defectors on South Korean soil, and generally behaved with the lowest standards of decency or regard for human life, yet the truce (technically the two Koreas are still at war) still holds. By all accounts there is more public outrage here than with previous incidents, but most of my colleagues at school simply dismissed the incident with a sad shrug. Nobody here wants to go (back) to war, and I suspect that if it came to a vote there would be little appetite for conflict.
Secondly, from my understanding of the political situation, none of the interested parties (with perhaps the exception of Japan) stands to gain from a war. Let's deal with the South first: a war would be hugely costly to the South. While in terms of hardware and technology South Korea is way ahead, and has the support of the US who would step in to help, a war would be unlikely to end quickly, and certainly not before Seoul had suffered major damage. Following the almost inevitable victory, South Korea would then have to deal with the remaining North Korean population. People here always tell you they are in favour of reunification, but would the South really want to take on 23 million starving, poorly educated and possibly brainwashed citizens. I've read a little of the difficulties that North Korean defectors have to adapting to life in the South. This would be the same but on a huge (and hugely expensive) scale. The war and the aftermath would cost trillions of dollars, with neither the South or the USA keen to pick up the bill.
China certainly doesn't want a war. I don't think they would actively fight against the USA (though they may provide other support for NK), and if they do the conflict would quickly escalate into a global conflict, and we're all for it. However, if they leave North Korea to lose, then they invite US troops on to their doorstep, which they couldn't countenance.
The biggest loser from a war though, is Kim Jong-Il. Whatever doubts you may have over his sanity and humanity, what is surely not in doubt is his ego and his sense of self-preservation. If he starts a war he is signing death warrants for himself and his political dynasty. The Kim regime will not start a war that it is almost guaranteed to lose. It does however benefit is from instability. The threat of conflict can be used as leverage to clamp down further on dissident elements who are a threat to the transfer of power currently taking place, and also to force more food and energy aid from the South and China, which the country needs more desperately than ever.
I, and most people I have spoken to, seem to feel that a normal course of action will follow. Korea and the US will put on a show of military strength, the North will make some threats, everyone will find a way to back down without losing any face, and more aid trucks will cross the border for a while. Things will go back to normal, I'll get hopeful when my won creeps up in value, and then they'll do it again. At this point, my colleagues will once again shrug and say "Mr Kim. He is crazy."
So don't worry about me. If things look bad I'll come home, but for now life here is far to good to think about quitting for the sake of an infinitesimal possibility of war.
A
